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In this article I will do a quick breakdown of the Expected Value of an Alpha Booster Box of Sorcery: Contested Realm. Hopefully this can serve as a reference if you are thinking about buying a box.
Average value per rarity
I’ll start off by calculating the average value per rarity as some cards can be worth a lot more than others. Then I will use those numbers in the next section to estimate the Expected Value. Please keep in mind that these numbers are ballpark figures. They have been obtained by checking the recent sold listings on eBay.
Unique
| Cards | Number of cards | Non-Foil Value | Foil Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philosopher’s Stone | 1 | $400 | $7,000 |
| Erik’s Curiosa | 1 | $250 | $3,500 |
| Aquamarine Core Ruby Core Amethyst Core Onyx Core Death Dealer Ruler of Thul Courtesan Thais | 7 | $150 | $1,000 |
| Other Uniques | 58 | $25 | $200 |
When taking the average we can see that Unique cards are worth about $47 for their Non-Foils versions and $434 for their Foil versions. A ballpark figure for complete sets would thus be $3,150 and $29,100 respectively.
Elite
| Cards | Number of cards | Non-Foil Value | Foil Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mix Terra Mix Aqua Mix Aer Mix Ignis Grandmaster Wizard | 5 | $15 | $200 |
| Other Elites | 98 | $5 | $50 |
When taking the average we can see that Elite cards are worth about $5.50 for their Non-Foils versions and $57 for their Foil versions. A ballpark figure for complete sets would thus be $565 and $5,900 respectively, and twice that amount for complete playsets.
Exceptional
| Cards | Number of cards | Non-Foil Value | Foil Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aqueduct Lighthouse Oasis Ruins Steppe Windmill | 6 | $5 | $50 |
| Other Exceptionals | 122 | $1 | $20 |
When taking the average we can see that Exceptional cards are worth about $1.20 for their Non-Foils versions and $21.50 for their Foil versions. A ballpark figure for complete sets would thus be $150 and $2,750 respectively, and three times that amount for complete playsets.
Ordinary
| Cards | Number of cards | Non-Foil Value | Foil Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 105 | $0.25 | $12.50 |
When taking the average we can see that Ordinary cards are worth about $0.25 for their Non-Foils versions and $12.50 for their Foil versions. A ballpark figure for complete sets would thus be $25 and $1,300 respectively, and four times that amount for complete playsets.
Expected Value
Using these numbers we can calculate the Expected Value.
An Alpha Booster Box contains 39 packs and for each pack I estimated the pull rates in my Sorcery: Contested Realm TCG complete print run numbers and pull rates article.
Check out the table below to see how many cards of each rarity you can expect on average and to see if the boxes are really worth their $750 price tag!
| Rarity | Value | Cards per box | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foil Unique | $434 | 0.57 | $248.91 |
| Foil Elite | $57 | 1.72 | $98.07 |
| Foil Exceptional | $21.50 | 3.44 | $73.99 |
| Foil Ordinary | $12.50 | 4.01 | $50.19 |
| Unique | $47 | 7.8 | $366.60 |
| Elite | $5.50 | 31.2 | $171.60 |
| Exceptional | $1.20 | 117 | $140.40 |
| Ordinary | $0.25 | 419.25 | $104.81 |
This gives a total Expected Value of $1,254.57 which makes these boxes well worth it with a return of investment of 167%! If you leave out the Non-Foil Ordinary, Exceptional and Elite cards then you still have an Expected Value of $837.76, which easily covers the cost of the box.
Of course not everything is easy to sell and some cards may ultimately not hold their value, but it is definitely looking very hopeful! Moreover, I haven’t even mentioned the super rare Curio cards yet, they might be as rare as one in every 50 boxes and may be worth well over $1,000!
Conclusion
In conclusion I think that, yes, it is definitely worth it to pick up an Alpha Booster Box for the joy of opening if you can afford it. If you are focused on selling the contents to turn a quick profit then I urge you to proceed with caution as the market may be less liquid than you’d want.
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