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In this article I’m going to show you what pulls are valuable, I will focus on the case hits and autographs, hopefully it will give you an idea of whether you can afford to break a box! Pull rate numbers can be found in my Panini Prizm World Cup 2022 Qatar: Pull rate and print run estimates article.
The data is taken from eBay in the last days of November 2022 and excludes the very first sales as they have carried a big premium.
National Landmarks
| Player | Country | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| Vinicius Jr. | Brazil | $700-900 |
| Christian Pulisic | United States | $450-600 |
| Pedri | Spain | $400-550 |
| Alphonso Davies | Canada | $350-550 |
| Harry Kane | England | $350-550 |
| Federico Valverde | Uruguay | $300-500 |
| Kasper Schmeichel | Denmark | $300 |
| Sadio Mane | Senegal | $220-350 |
| Lautaro Martinez | Argentina | $200-300 |
| Kai Havertz | Germany | $200-300 |
| Frenkie de Jong | Netherlands | $180-250 |
| Bruno Fernandes | Portugal | $180-250 |
| Gareth Bale | Wales | $175-275 |
| Guillermo Ochoa | Mexico | $150-300 |
| Ivan Perisic | Croatia | $150-250 |
| Romelu Lukaku | Belgium | $150-200 |
| Takumi Minamino | Japan | $150-200 |
| Yann Sommer | Switzerland | $130-170 |
| Keylor Navas | Costa Rica | $120-170 |
| Sergej Milinkovic-Savic | Serbia | $120-150 |
| Enner Valencia | Ecuador | $100-200 |
| Hee-chan Hwang | Korea Republic | $100-200 |
| Mathew Ryan | Australia | $100-160 |
| Thomas Partey | Ghana | $100-150 |
| Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa | Cameroon | $100 |
| Piotr Zielinski | Poland | $90-150 |
| Sardar Azmoun | IR Iran | $80-150 |
| Achraf Hakimi | Morocco | $80-150 |
| Almoez Ali | Qatar | $80-125 |
| Salem Al-Dawsari | Saudi Arabia | $60-80 |
| Ellyes Skhiri | Tunisia | $50-80 |
Here we can see that only very few case hits actually pay for the box, which costs roughly $500 right now. The good news is that a fair share of the hits give a return of almost half the box, and some even a return of the complete box! So landing a National Landmarks card should definitely be exciting!
It also worth noting that there should be 32 cards in this subset, one from each qualifying nation, however there are only 31 cards because France seems to be missing for some reason. This Topps checklist made by Beckett also does not have it listed.
Via this eBay search you can easily check all National Landmarks sales and this eBay search shows the current Hobby Box prices.
National Pride
| Player | Country | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | Argentina | $450-550 |
| Heung-Min Son | Korea Republic | $290-350 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | Portugal | $280-390 |
| Neymar Jr | Brazil | $170-270 |
| Jonathan David | Canada | $130-160 |
| Dusan Vlahovic | Serbia | $130-150 |
| Robert Lewandowski | Poland | $100 |
| Daniel James | Wales | $100 |
| Luka Modric | Croatia | $80-130 |
| Phil Foden | England | $80-125 |
| Edinson Cavani | Uruguay | $65-105 |
| Giovanni Reyna | United States | $60-180 |
| Mehdi Taremi | IR Iran | $60-90 |
| Christopher Nkunku | France | $50-80 |
| Thomas Muller | Germany | $50-75 |
| Virgil van Dijk | Netherlands | $50-60 |
| Ferran Torres | Spain | $40-80 |
| Jackson Irvine | Australia | $40-70 |
| Yuto Nagatomo | Japan | $40-60 |
| Joel Campbell | Costa Rica | $40-50 |
| Xherdan Shaqiri | Switzerland | $40-45 |
| Raul Jimenez | Mexico | $30-140 |
| Christian Eriksen | Denmark | $30-90 |
| Pervis Estupinan | Ecuador | $30-50 |
| Felix Afena-Gyan | Ghana | $30 |
| Youri Tielemans | Belgium | $20-40 |
| Akram Hassan Afif | Qatar | $20 |
| Fahad Al-Muwallad | Saudi Arabia | $15-45 |
| Kalidou Koulibaly | Senegal | $15-45 |
| Wahbi Khazri | Tunisia | $10 |
| Youssef En-Nesyri | Morocco | $5-35 |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | Cameroon | $5-30 |
The National Pride subset is significantly less popular, I’m unsure why exactly, but perhaps the cards being printed in portrait view is a negative? Unfortunately these hits are not very exciting. Though if you are lucky and hit a Lionel Messi, Heung-Min Son, Cristiano Ronaldo or Neymar Jr then you’ve still got a nice and very valuable card! Relative to the box price of course.
This subset does actually contain all 32 cards. One for each qualifying nation. Via this eBay search you can easily check out the National Pride sales.
Manga
| Player | Country | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| Gavi | Spain | $800 |
| Julian Alvarez | Argentina | $650-1,000 |
| Pedri | Spain | $650-700 |
| Christian Pulisic | United States | $480-800 |
| Heung-Min Son | Korea Republic | $400-600 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | Brazil | $365-435 |
| Bukayo Saka | England | $340-600 |
| Darwin Nunez | Uruguay | $340-440 |
| Phil Foden | England | $300-500 |
| Robert Lewandowski | Poland | $285-480 |
| Weston McKennie | United States | $275-520 |
| Karim Adeyemi | Germany | $230-405 |
| Ricardo Pepi | United States | $225-310 |
| Mason Mount | England | $200-260 |
| Jurgen Klinsmann | Germany | $200 |
| Dusan Vlahovic | Serbia | $170-250 |
| Hirving Lozano | Mexico | $150-215 |
| Paulo Dybala | Argentina | $150-175 |
| Manuel Neuer | Germany | $125-170 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | Belgium | $120-150 |
| Diogo Jota | Portugal | $115-195 |
| Jeremy Doku | Belgium | $110-165 |
| Virgil van Dijk | Netherlands | $100-200 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | Spain | $100-140 |
| Matthijs de Ligt | Netherlands | $100-130 |
The Manga subset is a real banger! Their unique artwork helps their value a lot, and they should be no more rare than the National Landmarks and National Pride subsets. The subset consists of only 25 cards and contains multiple players from the same nation.
With cards of players like Gavi, Julian Alvarez, Pedri, Christian Pulisic and Heung-Min Son paying for the entire box you can hit very big! And there are no super bad pulls either.
Via this eBay search you can check out the recent sale prices.
Color Wheel
| Player | Country | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | Argentina | $2,075-2,285 |
| Kylian Mbappe | France | $1,625 |
| Vinicius Jr. | Brazil | $980-1,050 |
| Luka Modric | Croatia | $860 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | Portugal | $830 |
| David Beckham | England | $765 |
| Alphonso Davies | Canada | $755 |
| Florian Wirtz | Germany | $560 |
| Bukayo Saka | England | $450 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | Belgium | $400-630 |
Color Wheel is the rarest subset of all, possibly landing one in each four cases, but it may even be more rare. Therefore the prices are also significantly higher and about every hit will pay for your box! Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe will even pay a significant multiple of that.
Via this eBay search you can check out the recent sales. They are very rare so not a lot of them will get sold I reckon.
Autographs
| Player | Variety | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | International Ink | $2,800-2,840 |
| Lionel Messi | Signatures | $2,000-2,375 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | Signatures | $890-$1,625 |
| Kylian Mbappe | International Ink | $885-$2,000 |
| Pele | Signatures | $445-700 |
For the Autographs I have decided to only include the most valuable cards, in this case only the regular base autographs worth more than $500 consistently. As you can see their prices may vary significantly, possibly the card condition and probably the signature quality is important here.
It seems like International Ink is more rare than the Signatures variety and of course the biggest names are the most valuable again. Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe and Pele in this case.
This eBay search shows Autograph sales over $500.
Numbered hits
There are too many numbered hits to cover them all in detail, so I am going to show some note-worthy sales below, hopefully this will give an idea about how valuable things can get!
| Card | Rarity | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| Phil Foden | Black 1/1 | $9,220 |
| Lionel Messi | Maroon /22 | $7,000 |
| England Team Badge | Black 1/1 | $6,380 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | Gold /10 | $6,000 |
| Cody Gakpo | Gold /10 | $4,060 |
| Senegal Team Badge | Black 1/1 | $3,350 |
| Takumi Minamino | Black 1/1 | $2,000 |
| Denmark Team Badge | Black 1/1 | $1,500 |
| England Team Badge | Gold /10 | $1,250 |
| Rafael Leao | Green /5 | $1,175 |
| Lionel Messi | Orange /25 | $1,000 |
| Cody Gakpo | Purple Mojo /49 | $400-500 |
| Lionel Messi | Blue /299 | $200-500 |
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