Panini Prizm World Cup 2022 Qatar: Pull rate and print run estimates

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Ever since writing my Panini Prizm World Cup 2022 Qatar Hobby Box opening article I wanted to research the pull rate and print run numbers, and now I’ve finally done so.

The bad news is that Panini don’t publish the pull rates themselves and hence it is very hard to find the exact pull rates, however the good news is that there is still some data available. First I’ll show you all the facts, and then I’ll make additional calculations using some estimates.

The facts

There are 1,500 1st Off the Line (FOTL) boxes out there. Check eBay here for their current prices. We know this because each box contains one Blue Shimmer Autograph card and one numbered #/5 Blue Shimmer base card. With there being 300 different base cards it is easy to see that there have to be 1,500 boxes available.

In total there are 1,183 numbered parallels available for each base card in all Panini Prizm World Cup 2022 Qatar product, meaning that with 300 different base cards there are 354,900 numbered parallels available in total, each of which can be found in all different types of product. More information about the different parallels available can be found here.

This means that at four non-exclusive numbered parallels per box there can only exist a maximum of 88,725 Hobby Boxes, and at least 88,725 Autograph cards as the other types of product may have a chance at Autograph cards too.

This also means that the pull rates for numbered parallels in Hobby Boxes are as follows.

RarityAverage per boxEstimated box pull rates
Red #/3991.351.33 per box
Blue #/2991.011 per box
Purple #/1990.671 in 1.5 boxes
Red Mojo #/990.331 in 3 boxes
Blue Mojo #/750.251 in 4 boxes
Purple Mojo #/490.1661 in 6 boxes
Orange #/250.0851 in 12 boxes
Maroon #/220.0741 in 13 boxes
Gold #/100.0341 in 30 boxes
Green #/50.0171 in 59 boxes
Black 1/10.0031 in 296 boxes
Hobby Box numbered parallels pull rates

Other than that it is honestly very hard to gather more facts, for the Breakaway Box and Choice Box products there simply are no more reference points. Mostly because they introduce their own parallels and the bigger part of them are unnumbered most likely. And then there is also the Blaster Box, another variable.

Case hits

Next to the regular cards and parallel versions of those there are also several subsets commonly referred to as case hits, it is again hard to find data on these, but I have found the following estimates. If you think any of these are wrong then please do not hesitate to contact me.

SubsetPull rate
National Landmarks1 in 12 boxes
National Pride1 in 12 boxes
Manga1 in 12 boxes
Color Wheel1 in 48 boxes
Case hit subset estimated pull rates

This should reflect the consensus that one of each of National Landmarks, National Pride and Manga appear in a case of twelve boxes, and that Color Wheel is far from being a case hit.

We do know the exact number of cards there are in each subset. As a result we can calculate how many boxes it takes on average to find the player you want. Later on this data can be used to make a guess on the number of copies of each card.

SubsetNumber of cardsUnique card pull rate
National Landmarks311 in 372 boxes
National Pride321 in 384 boxes
Manga251 in 300 boxes
Color Wheel101 in 480 boxes
Case hit pull rate estimates

The pull rates for Color Wheel also show why they are so expensive! Click here to check out their current prices on eBay.

Print run estimates

In my opinion the best course of action is to assume that we only have Hobby Box product and start the calculations from there. Of course it is going to be far from accurate because I would guess that only half of all the parallels end up in the Hobby Boxes and a lot of other product is out there too, each with their own pull rates.

Unnumbered parallels

So we can start with there being 88,725 boxes as calculated earlier and then we can make an estimate on the number of cards. The number of Silver Prizm cards is an interesting case already, we know Hobby Boxes state there are two in one box, however it seems that they can also be pulled in the additional six unnumbered parallels, I got four Silver Prizm cards in my box for example.

Using my personal experience Hobby Boxes may have four Silver Prizms, two Hyper Prizms, one Ice Prizm and one Pink Prizm on average. But again, this could be entirely wrong as the sample size is very small.

For the numbered parallels we of course know how many there are out there for each of the 300 base cards, so I’ll only list the unnumbered parallels.

RarityPull ratePrint run
Silver4 per box1,183 cards
Hyper2 per box592 cards
Ice1 per box296 cards
Pink1 per box296 cards
Unnumbered base card pull rate estimates

And this pretty much confirms that my estimates must be wrong, because I really doubt that unnumbered parallels are more rare than the least rare numbered parallels. So with all other types of product also available I would guess that these numbers need to be doubled or tripled at least. A print run of two or three thousand is not that bad for Silver Prizm cards of promising rookie players though.

Case hits

Next up are the case hits. I am a bit more confident about those numbers, because I guess that they will only be more rare in the other product types.

RarityUnique card pull ratePrint run
National Landmarks1 in 372 boxes239 cards
National Pride1 in 384 boxes231 cards
Manga1 in 300 boxes296 cards
Color Wheel1 in 480 boxes185 cards
Case hit pull rate estimates

These numbers definitely look believable, and in reality I think they might even be a little bit lower. Unsurprisingly the Color Wheel cards really seem to be rare, and they may even be more rare than shown here.

Autograph cards

Lastly we have the autograph cards, I think it is hard to make meaningful estimates about those. If all of the non-dual autographs would be created equally then we would have 190 different autographs and an estimate of 467 cards per autograph. However I am confident that some are more rare and some are less rare, still 500 seems to be a nice average ball park number.

And that is all calculated with there being only 88,725 autographs available, it is unsure how many more cards the other types of product add. Yet it could also be that the other product carries significantly less autographs and maybe my numbers are twice higher than they should be, we just don’t know.

So far it seems that there is a healthy supply of autograph cards of the biggest players like Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappé. If you’re interested in checking out the autograph card prices, then this eBay search may provide useful too!

Final words

I hope that this article is useful in its current form. Unfortunately with Panini it is hard to put meaningful numbers out there, but hopefully they are still useful!

You can always reach out to me on Twitter or Instagram if you have any suggestions.

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