Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 Hobby Box Expected Value

In this article the minimum expected value of a Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 Hobby Box from the Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 set will be calculated. Scroll to the bottom to quickly check whether this set is worth opening. You can also find all pull rates, pack odds and card values in this article.

Prices in this article are accurate as of June 27, 2023. Click here to view the current box prices on eBay!

Product information:

  • Set release date: May 4, 2023
  • Current box price: $120
  • Number of packs: 24
  • Cards per pack: 4
  • Boxes per case: 8

Base Set

The Base Set subset consists of 100 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base $0.30 2.72 cards $19.58
Refractor $2.00 1:2 $24.00
Aqua Refractor /199 $3.00 1:52 $1.38
Blue Refractor /150 $3.00 1:68 $1.06
Green Refractor /99 $4.00 1:103 $0.93
Gold Refractor /50 $15.00 1:204 $1.76
Orange Refractor /25 $25.00 1:408 $1.47
Red Refractor /5 $50.00 1:2,039 $0.59
Superfractor 1/1 $750.00 1:10,218 $1.76
Printing Plate 1/1 $75.00 1:2,547 $0.71

The expected value of all of the Base Set subset is $53.25.

Characters Autographs

The Characters Autographs subset consists of 55 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base $10.00 1:32 $7.50
Blue /150 $15.00 1:289 $1.25
Green /99 $20.00 1:368 $1.30
Gold /50 $40.00 1:650 $1.48
Orange /25 $50.00 1:1,301 $0.92
Black /10 $60.00 1:2,333 $0.62
Red /5 $100.00 1:4,335 $0.55
Superfractor 1/1 $300.00 1:16,195 $0.44

The expected value of all of the Characters Autographs subset is $14.06.

First Appearances Autographs

The First Appearances Autographs subset consists of 10 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base /25 $100.00 1:12,089 $0.20
Red /5 $250.00 1:57,220 $0.10
Superfractor 1/1 $1,000.00 1:85,829 $0.28

The expected value of all of the First Appearances Autographs subset is $0.58.

Dual Autographs

The Dual Autographs subset consists of 8 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base /25 $250.00 1:17,881 $0.34
Red /5 $500.00 1:85,829 $0.14
Superfractor 1/1 $1,500.00 1:107,286 $0.34

The expected value of all of the Dual Autographs subset is $0.81.

Triple Autographs

The Triple Autographs subset consists of 4 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base /25 $250.00 1:71,524 $0.08
Red /5 $500.00 1:171,658 $0.07
Superfractor 1/1 $2,000.00 1:214,572 $0.22

The expected value of all of the Triple Autographs subset is $0.38.

First Appearances

The First Appearances subset consists of 20 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base $40.00 1:255 $3.76
Green /99 $60.00 1:515 $2.80
Gold /50 $80.00 1:1,020 $1.88
Orange /25 $100.00 1:2,039 $1.18
Red /5 $150.00 1:10,218 $0.35
Superfractor 1/1 $1,000.00 1:50,488 $0.48

The expected value of all of the First Appearances subset is $10.45.

Journey of Grogu

The Journey of Grogu subset consists of 20 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base $0.75 1:3 $6.00
Green /99 $15.00 1:515 $0.70
Gold /50 $30.00 1:1,020 $0.71
Orange /25 $30.00 1:2,039 $0.35
Red /5 $75.00 1:10,218 $0.18
Superfractor 1/1 $150.00 1:50,488 $0.07

The expected value of all of the Journey of Grogu subset is $8.01.

Manga Madness

The Manga Madness subset consists of 15 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base $2.33 1:8 $7.00
Green /99 $30.00 1:686 $1.05
Gold /50 $70.00 1:1,359 $1.24
Orange /25 $100.00 1:2,717 $0.88
Red /5 $250.00 1:13,411 $0.45
Superfractor 1/1 $1,000.00 1:66,023 $0.36

The expected value of all of the Manga Madness subset is $10.98.

Monikers

The Monikers subset consists of 20 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base $1.75 1:6 $7.00
Green /99 $20.00 1:515 $0.93
Gold /50 $30.00 1:1,020 $0.71
Orange /25 $40.00 1:2,039 $0.47
Red /5 $100.00 1:10,218 $0.23
Superfractor 1/1 $250.00 1:50,488 $0.12

The expected value of all of the Monikers subset is $9.46.

Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art

The Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art subset consists of 10 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base $4.00 1:24 $4.00
Green /99 $20.00 1:1,030 $0.47
Gold /50 $40.00 1:2,039 $0.47
Orange /25 $50.00 1:4,068 $0.29
Red /5 $150.00 1:20,436 $0.18
Superfractor 1/1 $500.00 1:95,366 $0.13

The expected value of all of the Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art subset is $5.53.

Kyber Crystal Die-Cut

The Kyber Crystal Die-Cut subset consists of 5 cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Base $150.00 1:2,039 $1.77

The expected value of all of the Kyber Crystal Die-Cut subset is $1.77.

Sketch Cards

The Sketch Cards subset consists of an unknown number of cards.
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 Rarity   Card Value   Odds per pack   Expected Value 
Sketch $50.00 1:1,677 $0.72
Die-Cut Manga Sketch $100.00 1:4,962 $0.48

The expected value of all of the Sketch Cards subset is $1.20.

Is this set worth opening?

We know that a Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 Hobby Box costs $120. We’ll take a look at two different methods.

Please do keep in mind that all calculated values err on the side of caution, it is definitely possible to get better results if you pull high-end chase cards!

Selling everything

Selling everything will take a lot of time, but it is also a way of calculating the true value of a Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 Hobby Box, and if it is around break-even it could be a way to chase the high-end Superfractor and Autograph cards!

 Subset   Expected Value 
Base Set $53.25
Characters Autographs $14.06
First Appearances Autographs $0.58
Dual Autographs $0.81
Triple Autographs $0.38
First Appearances $10.45
Journey of Grogu $8.01
Manga Madness $10.98
Monikers $9.46
Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art $5.53
Kyber Crystal Die-Cut $1.77
Sketch Cards $1.20

Summing the data above we can see that all contents of the box sell for $116.48, equaling 97.1% of the box price.

Only selling the easy to sell cards

Another way to approach the question of whether it is worth opening is by taking only the cards that are to sell. This may involve opening multiple boxes if you want to sell complete sets, so this is mostly interesting if you want to open cases. Still, it can be a nice way to easily recoup some money!

In the table below you can see the easy to sell cards.

 Rarity   Expected Value 
Base Set – Base $19.58
Base Set – Refractor $24.00
First Appearances – Base $3.76
Journey of Grogu – Base $6.00
Manga Madness – Base $7.00
Monikers – Base $7.00
Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art – Base $4.00

This gives us a total of $71.35, or 59.5% of the box price.

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