In this article the minimum expected value of a Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 Blaster Box (Black Wave) from the Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 set will be calculated. Scroll to the bottom to quickly check whether this set is worth opening. You can also find all pull rates, pack odds and card values in this article.
Prices in this article are accurate as of June 27, 2023. Click here to view the current box prices on eBay!
Product information:
- Set release date: May 4, 2023
- Current box price: $20
- Number of packs: 10
- Cards per pack: 4
- Boxes per case: 40
Base Set
The Base Set subset consists of 100 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $0.30 | 3.12 cards | $9.36 |
| Black Wave | $4.00 | 1:5 | $8.00 |
| Aqua Refractor /199 | $3.00 | 1:397 | $0.08 |
| Blue Refractor /150 | $3.00 | 1:527 | $0.06 |
| Green Refractor /99 | $4.00 | 1:798 | $0.05 |
| Gold Refractor /50 | $15.00 | 1:1,580 | $0.09 |
| Orange Refractor /25 | $25.00 | 1:3,150 | $0.08 |
| Red Refractor /5 | $50.00 | 1:16,045 | $0.03 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $750.00 | 1:85,572 | $0.09 |
| Printing Plate 1/1 | $75.00 | 1:19,748 | $0.04 |
The expected value of all of the Base Set subset is $17.87.
Characters Autographs
The Characters Autographs subset consists of 55 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $10.00 | 1:1,173 | $0.09 |
| Blue /150 | $15.00 | 1:10,925 | $0.01 |
| Green /99 | $20.00 | 1:13,877 | $0.01 |
| Gold /50 | $40.00 | 1:24,450 | $0.02 |
| Orange /25 | $50.00 | 1:51,343 | $0.01 |
| Black /10 | $60.00 | 1:85,572 | $0.01 |
| Red /5 | $100.00 | 1:171,114 | $0.01 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $300.00 | 1:513,430 | $0.01 |
The expected value of all of the Characters Autographs subset is $0.16.
First Appearances Autographs
The First Appearances Autographs subset consists of 10 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base /25 | $100.00 | 1:513,430 | $0.00 |
The expected value of all of the First Appearances Autographs subset is $0.00.
Dual Autographs
The Dual Autographs subset consists of 8 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base /25 | $250.00 | 1:513,430 | $0.00 |
The expected value of all of the Dual Autographs subset is $0.00.
First Appearances
The First Appearances subset consists of 20 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $40.00 | 1:1,975 | $0.20 |
| Green /99 | $60.00 | 1:3,981 | $0.15 |
| Gold /50 | $80.00 | 1:7,899 | $0.10 |
| Orange /25 | $100.00 | 1:16,045 | $0.06 |
| Red /5 | $150.00 | 1:85,572 | $0.02 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $1,000.00 | 1:513,430 | $0.02 |
The expected value of all of the First Appearances subset is $0.55.
Journey of Grogu
The Journey of Grogu subset consists of 20 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $0.75 | 1:3 | $2.50 |
| Green /99 | $15.00 | 1:3,981 | $0.04 |
| Gold /50 | $30.00 | 1:7,899 | $0.04 |
| Orange /25 | $30.00 | 1:16,045 | $0.02 |
| Red /5 | $75.00 | 1:85,572 | $0.01 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $150.00 | 1:513,430 | $0.00 |
The expected value of all of the Journey of Grogu subset is $2.61.
Manga Madness
The Manga Madness subset consists of 15 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $2.33 | 1:8 | $2.92 |
| Green /99 | $30.00 | 1:5,294 | $0.06 |
| Gold /50 | $70.00 | 1:10,479 | $0.07 |
| Orange /25 | $100.00 | 1:21,393 | $0.05 |
| Red /5 | $250.00 | 1:102,686 | $0.02 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $1,000.00 | 1:513,430 | $0.02 |
The expected value of all of the Manga Madness subset is $3.13.
Monikers
The Monikers subset consists of 20 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $1.75 | 1:6 | $2.92 |
| Green /99 | $20.00 | 1:3,981 | $0.05 |
| Gold /50 | $30.00 | 1:7,899 | $0.04 |
| Orange /25 | $40.00 | 1:16,045 | $0.02 |
| Red /5 | $100.00 | 1:85,572 | $0.01 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $250.00 | 1:513,430 | $0.00 |
The expected value of all of the Monikers subset is $3.05.
Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art
The Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art subset consists of 10 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $4.00 | 1:24 | $1.67 |
| Green /99 | $20.00 | 1:8,023 | $0.02 |
| Gold /50 | $40.00 | 1:16,045 | $0.02 |
| Orange /25 | $50.00 | 1:32,090 | $0.02 |
| Red /5 | $150.00 | 1:171,144 | $0.01 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $500.00 | 1:513,430 | $0.01 |
The expected value of all of the Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art subset is $1.75.
Kyber Crystal Die-Cut
The Kyber Crystal Die-Cut subset consists of 5 cards.
Click here to buy them on eBay.
| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $150.00 | 1:16,045 | $0.09 |
The expected value of all of the Kyber Crystal Die-Cut subset is $0.09.
Is this set worth opening?
We know that a Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 Blaster Box (Black Wave) costs $20. We’ll take a look at two different methods.
Please do keep in mind that all calculated values err on the side of caution, it is definitely possible to get better results if you pull high-end chase cards!
Selling everything
Selling everything will take a lot of time, but it is also a way of calculating the true value of a Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 Blaster Box (Black Wave), and if it is around break-even it could be a way to chase the high-end Superfractor and Autograph cards!
| Subset | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| Base Set | $17.87 |
| Characters Autographs | $0.16 |
| First Appearances Autographs | $0.00 |
| Dual Autographs | $0.00 |
| First Appearances | $0.55 |
| Journey of Grogu | $2.61 |
| Manga Madness | $3.13 |
| Monikers | $3.05 |
| Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art | $1.75 |
| Kyber Crystal Die-Cut | $0.09 |
Summing the data above we can see that all contents of the box sell for $29.22, equaling 146.1% of the box price.
Only selling the easy to sell cards
Another way to approach the question of whether it is worth opening is by taking only the cards that are to sell. This may involve opening multiple boxes if you want to sell complete sets, so this is mostly interesting if you want to open cases. Still, it can be a nice way to easily recoup some money!
In the table below you can see the easy to sell cards.
| Rarity | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| Base Set – Base | $9.36 |
| First Appearances – Base | $0.20 |
| Journey of Grogu – Base | $2.50 |
| Manga Madness – Base | $2.92 |
| Monikers – Base | $2.92 |
| Return of the Jedi 40th Anniversary Poster Art – Base | $1.67 |
This gives us a total of $19.56, or 97.8% of the box price.
Final words
Hopefully this article was useful to you! If you liked it, then please consider following my Twitter or my Instagram! Alternatively you can also subscribe to my newsletter on the Home page.
Also, please take a look at my other articles:
- Topps Chrome Star Wars 2023 for other products.
- Topps Star Wars for other sets.
- Set EV for other categories.
This article contains affiliate links, and we may earn a commission on purchases you make, at no additional cost to you. Read more about it in my How do affiliate links work? article.
