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In this article the minimum expected value of a Topps Chrome Formula 1 2022 Hobby Box from the Topps Chrome Formula 1 2022 set will be calculated. Scroll to the bottom to quickly check whether this set is worth opening. You can also find all pull rates, pack odds and card values in this article.
Prices in this article are accurate as of July 1, 2023. Click here to view the current box prices on eBay!
Product information:
- Set release date: January 4, 2023
- Current box price: $280
- Number of packs: 18
- Cards per pack: 4
- Boxes per case: 12
Base Set
The Base Set subset consists of 200 cards.
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| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $0.25 | 2.67 cards | $12.02 |
| Refractor | $1.00 | 1:3 | $6.00 |
| Checker Flag X-Fractor | $2.00 | 1:18 | $2.00 |
| Purple/Green Refractor | $2.00 | 1:36 | $1.00 |
| Gold/Purple Refractor | $3.00 | 1:80 | $0.68 |
| Orange/Red Refractor | $4.00 | 1:100 | $0.72 |
| Red/Green Refractor | $8.00 | 1:190 | $0.76 |
| Purple Refractor /399 | $3.00 | 1:19 | $2.84 |
| Mini Diamonds Refractor /299 | $4.00 | 1:25 | $2.88 |
| Purple Checker Flag X-Fractor /199 | $4.00 | 1:38 | $1.89 |
| Green Refractor /99 | $5.00 | 1:76 | $1.18 |
| Pink Refractor /75 | $6.00 | 1:100 | $1.08 |
| Gold Refractor /50 | $10.00 | 1:150 | $1.20 |
| Gold Wave Refractor /50 | $10.00 | 1:150 | $1.20 |
| Gold Checker Flag X-Fractor /50 | $12.50 | 1:75 | $3.00 |
| Orange Refractor /25 | $25.00 | 1:300 | $1.50 |
| Orange Wave Refractor /25 | $25.00 | 1:300 | $1.50 |
| Orange Checker Flag X-Fractor /25 | $25.00 | 1:300 | $1.50 |
| Red Refractor /5 | $60.00 | 1:1,497 | $0.72 |
| Red Wave Refractor /5 | $60.00 | 1:1,497 | $0.72 |
| Red Checker Flag X-Fractor /5 | $60.00 | 1:747 | $1.45 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $500.00 | 1:7,454 | $1.21 |
| Printing Plates 1/1 | $60.00 | 1:1,874 | $0.58 |
The expected value of all of the Base Set subset is $47.62.
Image Variations
The Image Variations subset consists of 10 cards.
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| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $50.00 | 1:500 | $1.80 |
The expected value of all of the Image Variations subset is $1.80.
Chrome Autographs
The Chrome Autographs subset consists of 51 cards.
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| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $25.00 | 1:63 | $7.14 |
| Green /99 | $55.00 | 1:337 | $2.94 |
| Gold /50 | $60.00 | 1:342 | $3.16 |
| Gold Wave /50 | $60.00 | 1:306 | $3.53 |
| Orange /25 | $90.00 | 1:564 | $2.87 |
| Red /5 | $300.00 | 1:2,970 | $1.82 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $600.00 | 1:14,031 | $0.77 |
| Printing Plates 1/1 | $100.00 | 1:3,596 | $0.50 |
The expected value of all of the Chrome Autographs subset is $22.73.
1968 Topps Hot Rods Set
The 1968 Topps Hot Rods Set subset consists of 23 cards.
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| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $0.65 | 1:3 | $3.91 |
| Gold /50 | $15.00 | 1:1,999 | $0.14 |
| Gold Wave /50 | $15.00 | 1:1,999 | $0.14 |
| Orange /25 | $30.00 | 1:2,394 | $0.23 |
| Red /5 | $70.00 | 1:11,926 | $0.11 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $200.00 | 1:59,628 | $0.06 |
| Printing Plates 1/1 | $100.00 | 1:14,907 | $0.12 |
The expected value of all of the 1968 Topps Hot Rods Set subset is $4.70.
Constructors Coalition
The Constructors Coalition subset consists of 10 cards.
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| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $1.00 | 1:6 | $3.00 |
| Gold /50 | $30.00 | 1:2,994 | $0.18 |
| Gold Wave /50 | $30.00 | 1:2,994 | $0.18 |
| Orange /25 | $120.00 | 1:5,963 | $0.36 |
| Red /5 | $250.00 | 1:29,814 | $0.15 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $500.00 | 1:143,108 | $0.06 |
| Printing Plates 1/1 | $200.00 | 1:35,777 | $0.10 |
The expected value of all of the Constructors Coalition subset is $4.04.
Speed Demons
The Speed Demons subset consists of 16 cards.
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| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $0.94 | 1:6 | $2.81 |
| Gold /50 | $35.00 | 1:1,999 | $0.32 |
| Gold Wave /50 | $35.00 | 1:1,999 | $0.32 |
| Orange /25 | $100.00 | 1:3,998 | $0.45 |
| Red /5 | $200.00 | 1:19,876 | $0.18 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $500.00 | 1:89,442 | $0.10 |
| Printing Plates 1/1 | $100.00 | 1:24,674 | $0.07 |
The expected value of all of the Speed Demons subset is $4.25.
Art du Grand Prix
The Art du Grand Prix subset consists of 5 cards.
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| Rarity | Card Value | Odds per pack | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $35.00 | 1:433 | $1.45 |
| Orange /25 | $150.00 | 1:11,926 | $0.23 |
| Red /5 | $1,000.00 | 1:59,628 | $0.30 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | $2,000.00 | 1:238,512 | $0.15 |
| Printing Plates 1/1 | $500.00 | 1:71,554 | $0.13 |
The expected value of all of the Art du Grand Prix subset is $2.26.
Is this set worth opening?
We know that a Topps Chrome Formula 1 2022 Hobby Box costs $280. We’ll take a look at two different methods.
Please do keep in mind that all calculated values err on the side of caution, it is definitely possible to get better results if you pull high-end chase cards!
Selling everything
Selling everything will take a lot of time, but it is also a way of calculating the true value of a Topps Chrome Formula 1 2022 Hobby Box, and if it is around break-even it could be a way to chase the high-end Superfractor and Autograph cards!
| Subset | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| Base Set | $47.62 |
| Image Variations | $1.80 |
| Chrome Autographs | $22.73 |
| 1968 Topps Hot Rods Set | $4.70 |
| Constructors Coalition | $4.04 |
| Speed Demons | $4.25 |
| Art du Grand Prix | $2.26 |
Summing the data above we can see that all contents of the box sell for $87.39, equaling 31.2% of the box price.
Only selling the easy to sell cards
Another way to approach the question of whether it is worth opening is by taking only the cards that are to sell. This may involve opening multiple boxes if you want to sell complete sets, so this is mostly interesting if you want to open cases. Still, it can be a nice way to easily recoup some money!
In the table below you can see the easy to sell cards.
| Rarity | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| Base Set – Base | $12.02 |
| 1968 Topps Hot Rods Set – Base | $3.91 |
| Constructors Coalition – Base | $3.00 |
| Speed Demons – Base | $2.81 |
This gives us a total of $21.74, or 7.8% of the box price.
Final words
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Also, please take a look at my other articles:
- Topps Chrome Formula 1 2022 for other products.
- Topps Formula 1 for other sets.
- Set EV for other categories.
