In this article I will calculate the Expected Value of opening a Topps Chrome Star Wars Mandalorian box. It is also known as Topps Chrome Star Wars The Mandalorian Beskar Edition.
Currently these boxes can be acquired for $95-100 as seen here on eBay. When calculating the expected value I will base my calculations mainly on the sold listings of eBay, so that is about three months worth of historical data. One to thing to keep in mind though is that cards of this set are not sold very often, and that makes the calculations slightly harder.
I will start by discussing the Expected Value (EV) per subset of cards and in the final part of this article I will provide a summary. Please keep in mind that generally colored Refractor cards do not get sold in complete sets and thus I decided use their median value as their expected value, some specific cards however may be worth considerably less or more.
Base Set
In the Base Set we have regular cards and several parallel options which you can find in the table below. First we need to calculate how many base cards we can approximately find in a box. There are four cards in a pack and with 18 packs we start off with 72 cards. When we exclude the 18 Refractor cards we can find one per pack, we have 54 cards remaining. Then we can on average expect one autograph or sketch, one parallel base card and one parallel insert card or some other special card, which means that 51 cards in a box will be base cards.
A complete Base Set costs about $30 on eBay right now, and with 100 different cards that makes it $0.30 each on average. For a complete Refractor set the cost is about $50, even though these seem to sell for $2 each when pieced out. Both sets do not sell frequently however, so it is hard to be very confident about these prices, but it is a nice starting point.
| Rarity | Odds | Odds per box | Value | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 51 per box | 51 cards | $0.30 | $15.30 |
| Refractor | 1 per pack | 18 cards | $0.50 | $9 |
| Blue Refractor /99 | 1 in 54 packs | 33.3% | $3 | $1 |
| Purple Refractor /75 | 1 in 72 packs | 25% | $5 | $1.25 |
| Green Refractor /50 | 1 in 107 packs | 16.8% | $6 | $1.01 |
| Orange Refractor /25 | 1 in 214 packs | 8.4% | $10 | $0.84 |
| Black Refractor /10 | 1 in 534 packs | 3.4% | $30 | $1.01 |
| Red Refractor /5 | 1 in 1,065 packs | 1.7% | $50 | $0.85 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | 1 in 5,259 packs | 0.3% | $200 | $0.68 |
| Total | – | – | – | $30.94 |
Comic Covers
The Comic Covers insert set consists of five cards, and a complete set can be commonly found for $10 on eBay, so that makes it $2 per card. It is very hard to provide an accurate figure for the parallels, but I gave it a try anyway. The Red Refractor and Superfractor values are guesses.
| Rarity | Odds | Odds per box | Value | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 1 in 3 packs | 6 cards | $2 | $12 |
| Blue Refractor /99 | 1 in 1,074 packs | 1.7% | $30 | $0.50 |
| Green Refractor /50 | 1 in 2,126 packs | 0.8% | $30 | $0.25 |
| Orange Refractor /25 | 1 in 4,216 packs | 0.4% | $100 | $0.43 |
| Red Refractor /5 | 1 in 20,402 packs | 0.1% | $500 | $0.44 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | 1 in 102,006 packs | 0.02% | $1,000 | $0.18 |
| Total | – | – | – | $13.80 |
Armored & Ready
The Armored & Ready insert set consists of ten cards, and a complete set can be commonly found for $15 on eBay, so that makes it $1.50 per card. Again it is hard to provide accurate figures for the parallels, and the Red Refractor and Superfractor values are again guesses.
| Rarity | Odds | Odds per box | Value | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 1 in 6 packs | 3 cards | $1.50 | $4.50 |
| Blue Refractor /99 | 1 in 539 packs | 3.3% | $15 | $0.50 |
| Green Refractor /50 | 1 in 1,065 packs | 1.7% | $20 | $0.34 |
| Orange Refractor /25 | 1 in 2,126 packs | 0.8% | $20 | $0.17 |
| Red Refractor /5 | 1 in 10,409 packs | 0.2% | $80 | $0.14 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | 1 in 51,003 packs | 0.04% | $250 | $0.08 |
| Total | – | – | – | $5.73 |
Concept Art
The Concept Art insert set consists of 25 cards, and a complete set can be commonly found for $50 on eBay, so that makes it $2 per card. This time it is a bit easier to provide accurate figures as more cards appear on eBay with 25 different options available.
| Rarity | Odds | Odds per box | Value | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 1 in 6 packs | 3 cards | $2 | $6 |
| Blue Refractor /99 | 1 in 216 packs | 8.3% | $5 | $0.42 |
| Green Refractor /50 | 1 in 427 packs | 4.2% | $5 | $0.21 |
| Orange Refractor /25 | 1 in 853 packs | 2.1% | $10 | $0.21 |
| Red Refractor /5 | 1 in 4,216 packs | 0.4% | $60 | $0.26 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | 1 in 20,402 packs | 0.1% | $500 | $0.44 |
| Total | – | – | – | $7.54 |
Die-Cuts
The The Mandalorian Legends Die-Cuts subset consists of 10 cards, on average one can be found for $25 on eBay, however prices can vary a lot based on the subject that is portrayed. Also here I could not find data on the Red Refractor and Superfractor parallels, so I have to resort to calculated guesses.
| Rarity | Odds | Odds per box | Value | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 1 in 217 packs | 8.3% | $25 | $2.07 |
| Orange Refractor /25 | 1 in 2,125 packs | 0.8% | $100 | $0.85 |
| Red Refractor /5 | 1 in 10,409 packs | 0.2% | $300 | $0.52 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | 1 in 51,003 packs | 0.04% | $1,000 | $0.35 |
| Total | – | – | – | $3.79 |
Autographs
In this box there are 39 autograph cards, their prices vary a lot based on subject, and I got the following average prices of eBay. More concise figures are not possible as this set doesn’t seem to sell very frequently right now. The Superfractor value is a guess.
| Rarity | Odds | Odds per box | Value | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 1 in 33 packs | 54.5% | $10 | $5.45 |
| Blue Refractor /150 | 1 in 97 packs | 18.6% | $10 | $1.86 |
| Green Refractor /99 | 1 in 136 packs | 13.2% | $10 | $1.32 |
| Purple Refractor /50 | 1 in 249 packs | 7.2% | $15 | $1.08 |
| Orange Refractor /25 | 1 in 454 packs | 4.0% | $20 | $0.79 |
| Red Refractor /5 | 1 in 2,082 packs | 0.9% | $60 | $0.52 |
| Superfractor 1/1 | 1 in 10,409 packs | 0.2% | $250 | $0.43 |
| Total | – | – | – | $11.45 |
Dual autographs as well as triple autographs are not included, they have a significant value as well, but there are no sales to base their value upon.
Base Short Prints
The Base Short Print subset consists of cards that have the same number as their Base Set equivalent, but they come with a different image, sometimes they are also called Image Variation cards. This set has 25 different cards. They can be found here on eBay.
| Rarity | Odds | Odds per box | Value | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 1 in 107 packs | 16.8% | $30 | $5.05 |
| Total | – | – | – | $5.05 |
Sketches
The last category to cover is the Sketch cards category, they come in two different forms, regular sketch cards and shaped sketch cards, the shape of the latter resembles IG-11, correct me if I’m wrong though. For the value I took the sort of average of the more commonly found sketches, but a very popular sketch can cost up to $500 or more!
Sketch cards can be found here on eBay.
| Rarity | Odds | Odds per box | Value | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sketch Card | 1 in 117 packs | 15.4% | $80 | $12.31 |
| Shaped Sketch Card | 1 in 1,173 packs | 1.5% | $60 | $0.92 |
| Total | – | – | – | $13.23 |
Overview
Now it is time to create an overview of all categories in a Topps Chrome Star Wars Mandalorian box.
| Category | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| Base Set | $30.94 |
| Comic Covers | $13.80 |
| Armored & Ready | $5.73 |
| Concept Art | $7.54 |
| Die-Cuts | $3.79 |
| Autographs | $11.45 |
| Base Short Prints | $5.05 |
| Sketches | $13.23 |
| Total | $91.53 |
What is even more interesting is that $46.80 of the EV comes from the Base Set, Refractor Base Set, Comic Covers, Armored & Ready and Concept Art cards, all of which can be sold in complete sets with more ease when working with these boxes in bulk. That is 51.1% of the total EV, so over half!
Conclusion
After all these calculations you can see that the Expected Value of these boxes really is not bad at all! With boxes costing $95-100 at the time of writing as seen on eBay you are getting an 92-96% return on your money!
Of course this percentage is quite a bit lower when you have to factor in selling fees, for example from eBay, in case you decide to open purely for profit.
On the other hand the big dual and triple autograph cards are not accounted for, very popular Sketch cards are not accounted for and some of the Base parallels may sell for significantly more than the average, so there still is hope!
And when looking at all the data this seems like a perfect set for people who like to chase the big hits, sell off everything they don’t want and repeat. Sure, it will take a lot of time and effort, but it is perhaps the only way to get the high-end cards while also experiencing the thrill of opening them yourself!
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