Ever since writing my Panini Prizm World Cup 2022 Qatar Hobby Box opening article I wanted to research the pull rate and print run numbers, and now I’ve finally done so.
The bad news is that Panini don’t publish the pull rates themselves and hence it is very hard to find the exact pull rates, however the good news is that there is still some data available. First I’ll show you all the facts, and then I’ll make additional calculations using some estimates.
There are 1,500 1st Off the Line (FOTL) boxes out there. Check eBay here for their current prices. We know this because each box contains one Blue Shimmer Autograph card and one numbered #/5 Blue Shimmer base card. With there being 300 different base cards it is easy to see that there have to be 1,500 boxes available.
In total there are 1,183 numbered parallels available for each base card in all Panini Prizm World Cup 2022 Qatar product, meaning that with 300 different base cards there are 354,900 numbered parallels available in total, each of which can be found in all different types of product. More information about the different parallels available can be found here.
This means that at four non-exclusive numbered parallels per box there can only exist a maximum of 88,725 Hobby Boxes, and at least 88,725 Autograph cards as the other types of product may have a chance at Autograph cards too.
This also means that the pull rates for numbered parallels in Hobby Boxes are as follows.
|Rarity||Average per box||Estimated box pull rates|
|Red #/399||1.35||1.33 per box|
|Blue #/299||1.01||1 per box|
|Purple #/199||0.67||1 in 1.5 boxes|
|Red Mojo #/99||0.33||1 in 3 boxes|
|Blue Mojo #/75||0.25||1 in 4 boxes|
|Purple Mojo #/49||0.166||1 in 6 boxes|
|Orange #/25||0.085||1 in 12 boxes|
|Maroon #/22||0.074||1 in 13 boxes|
|Gold #/10||0.034||1 in 30 boxes|
|Green #/5||0.017||1 in 59 boxes|
|Black 1/1||0.003||1 in 296 boxes|
Other than that it is honestly very hard to gather more facts, for the Breakaway Box and Choice Box products there simply are no more reference points. Mostly because they introduce their own parallels and the bigger part of them are unnumbered most likely. And then there is also the Blaster Box, another variable.
Next to the regular cards and parallel versions of those there are also several subsets commonly referred to as case hits, it is again hard to find data on these, but I have found the following estimates. If you think any of these are wrong then please do not hesitate to contact me.
|National Landmarks||1 in 12 boxes|
|National Pride||1 in 12 boxes|
|Manga||1 in 12 boxes|
|Color Wheel||1 in 48 boxes|
This should reflect the consensus that one of each of National Landmarks, National Pride and Manga appear in a case of twelve boxes, and that Color Wheel is far from being a case hit.
We do know the exact number of cards there are in each subset. As a result we can calculate how many boxes it takes on average to find the player you want. Later on this data can be used to make a guess on the number of copies of each card.
|Subset||Number of cards||Unique card pull rate|
|National Landmarks||31||1 in 372 boxes|
|National Pride||32||1 in 384 boxes|
|Manga||25||1 in 300 boxes|
|Color Wheel||10||1 in 480 boxes|
Print run estimates
In my opinion the best course of action is to assume that we only have Hobby Box product and start the calculations from there. Of course it is going to be far from accurate because I would guess that only half of all the parallels end up in the Hobby Boxes and a lot of other product is out there too, each with their own pull rates.
So we can start with there being 88,725 boxes as calculated earlier and then we can make an estimate on the number of cards. The number of Silver Prizm cards is an interesting case already, we know Hobby Boxes state there are two in one box, however it seems that they can also be pulled in the additional six unnumbered parallels, I got four Silver Prizm cards in my box for example.
Using my personal experience Hobby Boxes may have four Silver Prizms, two Hyper Prizms, one Ice Prizm and one Pink Prizm on average. But again, this could be entirely wrong as the sample size is very small.
For the numbered parallels we of course know how many there are out there for each of the 300 base cards, so I’ll only list the unnumbered parallels.
|Rarity||Pull rate||Print run|
|Silver||4 per box||1,183 cards|
|Hyper||2 per box||592 cards|
|Ice||1 per box||296 cards|
|Pink||1 per box||296 cards|
And this pretty much confirms that my estimates must be wrong, because I really doubt that unnumbered parallels are more rare than the least rare numbered parallels. So with all other types of product also available I would guess that these numbers need to be doubled or tripled at least. A print run of two or three thousand is not that bad for Silver Prizm cards of promising rookie players though.
Next up are the case hits. I am a bit more confident about those numbers, because I guess that they will only be more rare in the other product types.
|Rarity||Unique card pull rate||Print run|
|National Landmarks||1 in 372 boxes||239 cards|
|National Pride||1 in 384 boxes||231 cards|
|Manga||1 in 300 boxes||296 cards|
|Color Wheel||1 in 480 boxes||185 cards|
These numbers definitely look believable, and in reality I think they might even be a little bit lower. Unsurprisingly the Color Wheel cards really seem to be rare, and they may even be more rare than shown here.
Lastly we have the autograph cards, I think it is hard to make meaningful estimates about those. If all of the non-dual autographs would be created equally then we would have 190 different autographs and an estimate of 467 cards per autograph. However I am confident that some are more rare and some are less rare, still 500 seems to be a nice average ball park number.
And that is all calculated with there being only 88,725 autographs available, it is unsure how many more cards the other types of product add. Yet it could also be that the other product carries significantly less autographs and maybe my numbers are twice higher than they should be, we just don’t know.
So far it seems that there is a healthy supply of autograph cards of the biggest players like Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappé. If you’re interested in checking out the autograph card prices, then this eBay search may provide useful too!
I hope that this article is useful in its current form. Unfortunately with Panini it is hard to put meaningful numbers out there, but hopefully they are still useful!